I would usually give it 4-6 weeks as thats when skin renews. If it happens during this time and seems to get better, id say purging.

If it’s a big problem you could see a dermatologist and get them to guide you. They can give you a plan and tell you what to expect, when to stop and when to keep going. Breakouts are so frustrating and I find having someone’s support is helpful

I feel your pain! To be honest I think the only way to tell is time! Give it a week or two and if it gets better then you know it was just purging!

Thankfully I dont have this problem but one of my daughters has major issues with breakouts. She would try a new skincare routine and her skin would improve and then without warning it was all down hill again. This had gone on for years. Long story short she is now seeing specialists because it was discovered that her hormones are all over the place. No one can explain why but shes started a medication to try and help. Fingers crossed it works.

I can tell if my skin is having a terrible moment depending on how the breakout feels. If my skin is sore I know it’s a combo of hormones and sugar.